Assad's forces are amassing in Syria's North-West for what could be a large scale offensive on Idlib province and the last battle to wrest control of Syria. Idlib is the last opposition to Assad stronghold of Syria.The UN has warned of the “Worst Humanitarian Catastrophe” of this Century if the attack goes ahead, since there are no remaining opposing area's to which those fleeing Idlib could be evacuated.
Idlib is central to the outcome of the war and also the fate of the broader region. As the seven-year conflict almost draws to a close. Each participant in the war, Syrian & non-Syrian, is trying to secure their interests in Syria. External Powers who are trying to carve out influence in Northern Syria are Russia and Iran, to whom Bashar-al-Assad, the Syrian President, owes his success so far, and Turkey, in whom rebels groups continue to pin their hopes. There is also what remains of a fractured anti-Assad opposition, Jihadist groups and a regime desperate to claim it has won the war. Now in Idlib, out
of Idlib's 3 million citizens, at least 1.5 million are believed to be exiled from war elsewhere in Syria, particularly areas taken in conflicts by Russian, Iranian and Syrian government forces. Also the civilian communities who have not come to terms with the Syrian government had fled to Idlib.
As the number of such refuge seekers people have mounted, fears have risen that Idlib is being set up as a killing area by Syrian backed forces, a place where Jihadists are mixed in with civilians to reaffirm a Syrian government narrative that the 2011 anti-Assad uprising was all Jihad and nothing else. On the Pro-Assad side are what remains of the Syrian Army, among them nationalists committed to saving the country and other loyal to the Assad regime. There are also militia raised as a Home Guards who played increasingly prominent role when state structures were tested as the conflicts went on. Key are Russian Forces, led by the Air Force, which saved Assad from defeat in September 2015 and have asserted control over the war ever since. While the Russians have controlled the skies, Iranian-backed militia have dominated the ground war. They were the first into East Aleppo and have been active on most battlefields. Lebanon's Hezbollah, the most important Iranian proxy and Afghani, Iraqi and Yemeni fighters, as well as Iranian are fighting there.
US Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley has sent a stark warning to the Assad regime and it's allies Russia and Iran, claiming there will be “Dire Consequences” if they continue to launch airstrikes within the Idlib province.
International observers claim more than 30 airstrikes have struck town and villages in the South-West of the province over the weekend.
Speaking at the UN Security Council meeting on the crisis in Syria, Mrs Haley said “ The world has seen a clear military escalation” from Assad and his allies, who's military's have conducted over 100 airstrikes in the Syrian province of Idlib. She told the council. "If Assad, Russia and Iran continue down the path they are on, the consequences will be dire".
Wait and watch, will Putin, Assad and Iran relent? And will Trump carryout his threat.
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